Exit Poll. Local is more Vocal. Trust me
No ‘exit poll’ can be near to truth if its maker has no ‘know-how’ about the Sociological dynamics of a Constituency. Just because a seat historically and traditionally is bagged by a single candidate or his family, it cannot be taken far granted to be won by the same family perpetually. 32,000 votes polled in ‘anti-incumbency’ can set the ground upside down for any political dynasty. There are two distinct trends of the exit poll broadcasted on National Television channels. One, they are mostly devoid of any real analysis on the field. An example in point is of Kangan-17 constituency. Even the senior and veteran journalists and psephologists have not learnt the fact that there is significant ST & Non-ST population in Kangan who might have voted in an entirely different manner than their traditional voting behaviour. The voting in Kangan is a complete study in itself and must be seen as the most contestant competition ever in the history of polling in the Kashmir valley. This majority chunk of population must have written history through their ballot boxes and will be in public domain on 08/10/2024. Just because a particular party is over all grabbing majority of the seats in the valley doesn’t mean the party will win the Kangan seat too. Local booth level workers and the local media know more accurately the veracity of facts than the national studios faces’ sitting in New Delhi. My small analysis point to the victory of PDP in Kangan with a largest share of silent vote, no one ever would have imagined in their wildest thought.
